The Upstream Squeeze: Strategic Minerals and the Physical Base of Compute
Everyone stares at the fabs and the frontier models. The real leverage sits three steps upstream, in the muddy business of digging, separating and refining metals almost nobody can name. Whoever controls the processing of rare earths, gallium and germanium holds a hand on the throat of the entire AI stack. My read: the compute race is decided as much in solvent-extraction plants as in data centres, and the country that dominates refining can impose costs on rivals without ever touching a chip. Treat minerals policy as compute policy. The two are now the same subject wearing different hats.
Knowledge check
Why does control of mineral processing and refining confer more strategic leverage than control of the raw ore deposits themselves?
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Ore is geologically widespread and can be mined in many countries, but the separation and refining of rare earths, gallium and germanium is concentrated in a handful of facilities. Whoever controls that midstream step can restrict supply, set prices and impose costs on rivals regardless of where the raw material is dug up.